South Africa geopolitical risk index

South Africa in the African GPR Index

Data through 23 June 2026 · Explore the full African GPR Index

In May 2026, the African GPR Index for South Africa stood at 99.7, which is close to its long-run norm. The 90-day average of 103.3 is higher than 58% of all 90-day periods since 2000. Since 2000, the highest monthly reading was 162.5 in February 2013. Over the last 90 days, 27.3% of South Africa's news-event coverage reported conflict or threat, ranking 14 of 54 countries in Africa on this cross-country comparable measure.

Monthly average of South Africa's own GPR index (2000–2019 average = 100), 1985 to 2026. Dashed line = the country's own baseline of 100. Early years rest on thinner news coverage and are noisier.

Download South Africa geopolitical risk data

The monthly file has one row per month and these columns: africa_gpr_index, africa_conflict_share_pct. Daily data for every country is in the regional files.

What the numbers mean

• African GPR Index: built from the GDELT Event Database (1979–). The index is South Africa's own GPR index (2000–2019 average = 100): 150 means risk coverage 50% above South Africa's own normal. The conflict share is the share of South Africa's news-event coverage that reports conflict or threat, and it is the series to use for comparing countries.

All indices follow the geopolitical-risk definition of Caldara and Iacoviello (2022): the threat, realization and escalation of wars, terrorism and tensions between states and political actors. The full construction is on the methodology page.

How to cite

@misc{iddouch2026gprhub,
  author       = {Iddouch, Karim},
  title        = {GPR Data Hub: Daily Geopolitical Risk Indices for MENA, Africa, Europe and South America},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://karimiddouch.org/}},
  note         = {Data set, CC BY 4.0, accessed YYYY-MM-DD}
}

Other countries in Africa

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