The Arabic AI-GPR Index: Measuring Geopolitical Risk from Arabic-Language News

Abstract

I construct the first daily index of geopolitical risk built entirely from Arabic-language news. Existing measures, including the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index of Caldara and Iacoviello (2022) and its large-language-model successor (Iacoviello and Tong 2026), read global tension through English-language, predominantly Western newspapers, a vantage point that is least reliable precisely where geopolitical risk is most concentrated, the Middle East and North Africa. Using a curated corpus of leading pan-Arab outlets accessed through GDELT over 2015–2026, I measure risk along two independent tracks, a transparent theme-based screen and a large-language-model reading of each article, and show that they agree almost perfectly (a daily correlation above 0.95). I argue that this convergence makes the transparent, reproducible, and costless theme-based measure the preferable instrument. The Arabic index rises at every major regional episode, co-moves with the original GPR and the AI-GPR in changes (a monthly correlation of 0.61 with each) while diverging in levels, and its oil component tracks the Middle East oil-risk index of Iacoviello at a correlation of 0.82. Using daily local projections, I find that an Arabic oil-risk shock raises Brent realized volatility for about a month. I decompose the index by country, country pair, actor, event type, sub-national hotspot, and the threat-act distinction, and release the whole series as an open, monthly-updated resource.

Keywords: Geopolitical Risk; Arabic News; Large Language Models; Text Analysis; Middle East and North Africa; GDELT; Oil. JEL: C43, C55, E32, F51, G15, Q43.

How to cite

@techreport{iddouch2026mena,
  author      = {Iddouch, Karim},
  title       = {The Arabic AI-GPR Index: Measuring Geopolitical Risk from Arabic-Language News},
  institution = {International University of Casablanca},
  type        = {Working paper},
  year        = {2026},
  doi         = {10.5281/zenodo.20813840},
  url         = {https://karimiddouch.org/papers/mena-gpr-index.html}
}

The data documented in this paper are free to download from the Data Center. Methodology summary: how we measure geopolitical risk.