A daily measure of geopolitical risk built from Arabic‑language news, read and scored with large language models — the first geopolitical risk index constructed from the Arab world’s own media. Updated every month.
Move your cursor across the chart to read the index day by day. Drag to zoom, use the slider below to pan, or the buttons to jump to a period. Dashed lines mark major events. The series is refreshed every month with the latest data.
The headline index is just the start. The same Arabic‑LLM pipeline is being extended both backward through earlier decades — toward the longest Arabic geopolitical‑risk record — and outward into a full family of measures.
Daily index of geopolitical risk from curated pan‑Arab news, 2015–present.
The flagship. An AI reads every article and scores its risk intensity — far sharper than keyword counting, and catching virtually every event. The most powerful version yet.
Separate risk series for every country named in the news — Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Iran, Israel, and more. Now live and interactive.
Explore the interactive page → NEWSub‑indices by type: wars, terrorism, military activity, protests, sanctions, nuclear — now live and interactive.
Explore the interactive page → NEWAnticipated risk (threats) versus realized events (acts), with a kinetic ratio — now live and interactive.
Explore the interactive page → NEWCo‑mention tension series for pairs — Iran–Israel, Saudi–Yemen, Israel–Lebanon — plus a who‑with‑whom heatmap. Now live.
Explore the interactive page → NEWRisk attributable to armed groups (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis) and named leaders (Netanyahu, Khamenei) — now live.
Explore the interactive page → NEWSub‑national hotspots — Gaza, Aleppo, Sana'a, Baghdad and more — now live and interactive.
Explore the interactive page → NEWEnergy‑supply risk by corridor (Persian Gulf, Red Sea, Suez), validated against Brent crude — now live.
Explore the interactive page →Extending the index back through earlier decades to build one of the longest Arabic geopolitical‑risk series available.
Following Iacoviello & Tong (2026), adapted end‑to‑end to Arabic news.
Millions of Arabic‑language articles from leading pan‑Arab outlets, via the GDELT global news database.
Filter to geopolitical content, then have AI assess each article’s risk intensity on a 0–1 scale.
Average daily, normalize to a 2016–2024 baseline of 100, and validate against known events.
Every article is screened for geopolitical content using these conflict‑related categories. They orbit continuously — move your cursor across the sphere to spin it, and hover a term to see its English label and share.
This index is a work in progress. If you are a researcher, analyst, or practitioner, your feedback — on the methodology, the choice of sources, the events captured, or anything that could improve its quality and accuracy — is genuinely valued and helps make it better.
The Arabic AI‑GPR Index is built and maintained single‑handedly by its author, Karim Iddouch — with no institutional funding, no grant, and no team. Behind every point on the chart lie long months of work: gathering and screening millions of Arabic news articles, reading and scoring them with AI, validating the series against more than a decade of regional events, and rebuilding it every single month.
It is offered openly, as a public resource for researchers and the curious alike. Your support keeps it independent, free to explore, and continuously updated — and directly funds the AI‑scoring compute, the data, and the ongoing extension of the record back across earlier decades. Every contribution, however small, genuinely moves the project forward.
If you use the Arabic AI‑GPR Index in your research, please cite it as:
The threat and realization of adverse events such as wars, terrorism, and tensions between states. Because it cannot be observed directly, it is measured from how intensively the news discusses it.
Existing indices read global tension through English‑language, mostly Western newspapers. This index captures how geopolitical risk is perceived and reported within the Arab world itself — often earlier and in greater detail for regional events.
A curated set of leading pan‑Arab news outlets, accessed through the GDELT global news database and filtered to Arabic‑language articles.
In two layers: a fast, transparent theme‑based baseline (shown on this page) that reads GDELT’s geopolitical tags, and a forthcoming LLM‑based version in which AI reads and scores each article’s risk intensity, following Iacoviello & Tong (2026).
Every month, with the latest available data.
Yes. The headline index and every sub‑index are free to download as CSV on the data page. The full article‑level corpus and replication code are available to researchers on request.