GPRData Hub
MENA GPR data

Explore the index

How the Arab world’s daily geopolitical news coverage breaks down, by country and by event type. Pick items, hover to read values, and drag to zoom. Theme-based baseline, 2015–2026.

Regions
Each line is the 30-day moving average of the share of daily Arabic geopolitical coverage mentioning that country. Dashed markers flag major events.
Event types
Each line is the 30-day moving average of the share of daily Arabic geopolitical coverage carrying that event-type theme. The full LLM-scored sub-indices are coming soon.
Pairs
Each line is the 30-day moving average of the share of daily Arabic geopolitical coverage that co-mentions both countries in the pair. Dashed markers flag major events.

Who appears with whom

Total co-mentions of each country pair, 2015–2026 (log colour scale). Hover for exact counts.
The full LLM-scored bilateral indices are coming soon.
Actors
Each line is the 30-day moving average of the share of daily Arabic geopolitical coverage mentioning that actor. Dashed markers flag major events. Coverage of the Islamic State is being added.
Corridors
Geopolitical coverage that also concerns oil or energy, as a share of daily geopolitical coverage (30-day moving average). "Oil-energy (all)" is the headline series; the others are oil corridors, with the Persian Gulf keyed to the Gulf producers and the Strait of Hormuz. Dashed markers flag major events. The LLM-scored oil index is coming soon.

Validation against the oil price

The oil‑energy GPR against Brent crude (FRED series DCOILBRENTEU). The two co‑move around supply shocks, and every major spike coincides with a sharp rise in oil‑price volatility (Ukraine 2022, Gaza 2023, Israel‑Iran 2025).
Hotspots
Each line is the 30-day moving average of the share of daily Arabic geopolitical coverage that names the city. Dashed markers flag major events. Cities GDELT resolves only to the province or country level (e.g. Mosul, Homs) cannot be isolated and are omitted. The LLM-scored city index is coming soon.
Series
Geopolitical coverage split into realized acts (armed conflict, terror, assassinations) and anticipated threats (military buildup, nuclear, sanctions, ultimatums), as a share of daily geopolitical coverage (30-day moving average). Acts dominate; threats rise during standoffs such as the 2019 Gulf tanker crisis. The LLM-scored versions are coming soon.
Open data

Download the MENA data

Every series is free to download as CSV, daily from 2015 to 2026, under a CC BY 4.0 license.

Read the full paper
Construction, methodology and validation.
→ PDF
Headline index
Daily MENA index + 30-day average.
↓ CSV
By country
Risk series for each country named in the news.
↓ CSV
By event type
Wars, terror, protests, sanctions, nuclear and more.
↓ CSV
By actor
Armed groups and named leaders.
↓ CSV
City hotspots
Sub-national hotspots across the region.
↓ CSV
Oil & energy
Energy-supply risk by corridor.
↓ CSV
Threats vs acts
Anticipated versus realized events.
↓ CSV
Bilateral pairs
Co-mention tension between country pairs.
↓ CSV

Please cite: Iddouch, K. (2026), GPR Data Hub. See also the working papers and the Data Center.

Country pages

Each country has its own page with the latest reading, a long-run chart, its rank in the region and a monthly CSV.

AlgeriaBahrainEgyptIranIraqIsraelJordanKuwaitLebanonLibyaMoroccoOmanPalestineQatarRussiaSaudi ArabiaSudanSyriaTunisiaTurkeyUkraineUnited Arab EmiratesYemen

How to cite

Please cite

Iddouch, K. (2026). The Arabic AI-GPR Index: Measuring geopolitical risk from Arabic-language news (Working paper). https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.20813840

@techreport{iddouch2026mena,
  author      = {Iddouch, Karim},
  title       = {The Arabic AI-GPR Index: Measuring Geopolitical Risk from Arabic-Language News},
  institution = {International University of Casablanca},
  type        = {Working paper},
  year        = {2026},
  doi         = {10.5281/zenodo.20813840},
  url         = {https://karimiddouch.org/papers/mena-gpr-index.html}
}

Methodology →Ranking of all countries →How this index compares →

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