Madagascar geopolitical risk index

Madagascar in the African GPR Index

Data through 23 June 2026 · Explore the full African GPR Index

In May 2026, the African GPR Index for Madagascar stood at 114.8, which is above its long-run norm (about 15% higher than the 2000–2019 average). The 90-day average of 116.0 is higher than 80% of all 90-day periods since 2000. Since 2000, the highest monthly reading was 268.8 in May 2000. Over the last 90 days, 24.9% of Madagascar's news-event coverage reported conflict or threat, ranking 19 of 54 countries in Africa on this cross-country comparable measure.

Monthly average of Madagascar's own GPR index (2000–2019 average = 100), 1985 to 2026. Dashed line = the country's own baseline of 100. Early years rest on thinner news coverage and are noisier.

Download Madagascar geopolitical risk data

The monthly file has one row per month and these columns: africa_gpr_index, africa_conflict_share_pct. Daily data for every country is in the regional files.

What the numbers mean

• African GPR Index: built from the GDELT Event Database (1979–). The index is Madagascar's own GPR index (2000–2019 average = 100): 150 means risk coverage 50% above Madagascar's own normal. The conflict share is the share of Madagascar's news-event coverage that reports conflict or threat, and it is the series to use for comparing countries.

All indices follow the geopolitical-risk definition of Caldara and Iacoviello (2022): the threat, realization and escalation of wars, terrorism and tensions between states and political actors. The full construction is on the methodology page.

How to cite

@misc{iddouch2026gprhub,
  author       = {Iddouch, Karim},
  title        = {GPR Data Hub: Daily Geopolitical Risk Indices for MENA, Africa, Europe and South America},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://karimiddouch.org/}},
  note         = {Data set, CC BY 4.0, accessed YYYY-MM-DD}
}

Other countries in Africa

See the geopolitical risk ranking for all countries →