Ukraine geopolitical risk index

Ukraine in the MENA GPR Index

Data through 18 June 2026 · Explore the full MENA GPR Index

In May 2026, 2.2% of the Arabic-language geopolitical coverage tracked by the MENA GPR Index mentioned Ukraine. The 90-day average of 2.2% is higher than 63% of all 90-day periods since 2015, and ranks Ukraine 9 of 23 countries in the index. The highest monthly share was 13.9% in March 2022.

Monthly average share of Arabic-language geopolitical coverage that mentions Ukraine, 2015 to 2026.

Ukraine in the European GPR Index

Data through 1 June 2026 · Explore the full European GPR Index

In June 2026, the European GPR Index for Ukraine stood at 142.0, which is well above its long-run norm: risk coverage is about 42% higher than Ukraine's 2000–2019 average. The 90-day average of 151.7 is higher than 98% of all 90-day periods since 2000. Since 2000, the highest monthly reading was 172.7 in May 2018. Over the last 90 days, 36.5% of Ukraine's news-event coverage reported conflict or threat, ranking 1 of 40 countries in Europe on this cross-country comparable measure.

Monthly average of Ukraine's own GPR index (2000–2019 average = 100), 1985 to 2026. Dashed line = the country's own baseline of 100. Early years rest on thinner news coverage and are noisier.

Download Ukraine geopolitical risk data

The monthly file has one row per month and these columns: europe_gpr_index, europe_conflict_share_pct, mena_coverage_share_pct. Daily data for every country is in the regional files.

What the numbers mean

• MENA GPR Index: built from a curated set of leading pan-Arab outlets in the GDELT Global Knowledge Graph (2015–). The series is the share of Arabic-language geopolitical coverage that mentions Ukraine, a measure of how much of the region's risk news concerns Ukraine.
• European GPR Index: built from the GDELT Event Database (1979–). The index is Ukraine's own GPR index (2000–2019 average = 100): 150 means risk coverage 50% above Ukraine's own normal. The conflict share is the share of Ukraine's news-event coverage that reports conflict or threat, and it is the series to use for comparing countries.

All indices follow the geopolitical-risk definition of Caldara and Iacoviello (2022): the threat, realization and escalation of wars, terrorism and tensions between states and political actors. The full construction is on the methodology page.

How to cite

@misc{iddouch2026gprhub,
  author       = {Iddouch, Karim},
  title        = {GPR Data Hub: Daily Geopolitical Risk Indices for MENA, Africa, Europe and South America},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://karimiddouch.org/}},
  note         = {Data set, CC BY 4.0, accessed YYYY-MM-DD}
}

Other countries in Europe

See the geopolitical risk ranking for all countries →