Estonia geopolitical risk index

Estonia in the European GPR Index

Data through 1 June 2026 · Explore the full European GPR Index

In June 2026, the European GPR Index for Estonia stood at 82.5, which is below its long-run norm (about 18% lower than the 2000–2019 average). The 90-day average of 105.9 is higher than 67% of all 90-day periods since 2000. Since 2000, the highest monthly reading was 344.2 in February 2010. Over the last 90 days, 22.4% of Estonia's news-event coverage reported conflict or threat, ranking 17 of 40 countries in Europe on this cross-country comparable measure.

Monthly average of Estonia's own GPR index (2000–2019 average = 100), 1985 to 2026. Dashed line = the country's own baseline of 100. Early years rest on thinner news coverage and are noisier.

Download Estonia geopolitical risk data

The monthly file has one row per month and these columns: europe_gpr_index, europe_conflict_share_pct. Daily data for every country is in the regional files.

What the numbers mean

• European GPR Index: built from the GDELT Event Database (1979–). The index is Estonia's own GPR index (2000–2019 average = 100): 150 means risk coverage 50% above Estonia's own normal. The conflict share is the share of Estonia's news-event coverage that reports conflict or threat, and it is the series to use for comparing countries.

All indices follow the geopolitical-risk definition of Caldara and Iacoviello (2022): the threat, realization and escalation of wars, terrorism and tensions between states and political actors. The full construction is on the methodology page.

How to cite

@misc{iddouch2026gprhub,
  author       = {Iddouch, Karim},
  title        = {GPR Data Hub: Daily Geopolitical Risk Indices for MENA, Africa, Europe and South America},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://karimiddouch.org/}},
  note         = {Data set, CC BY 4.0, accessed YYYY-MM-DD}
}

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